A review study led by a Virginia Institute of Marine Science professor, recently published in an edition of the scientific journal “Nature Climate Change,” is highlighting the increased risk faced by rural, coastal localities as it relates to privately-owned land.

“The paper, based on research funded by the National Science Foundation, is the first effort to synthesize the growing number of studies of land conversion driven by sea-level rise,” a VIMS press release noted. Specifically mentioned in the report was the increasing rate of “ghost forests,” that is, wooded shoreline areas that are slowly being converted into marshland as rising tides kill off trees.

“Ghost forests are one of the most prominent indicators of climate change,” said Matt Kirwan, lead author on the study and associate professor at VIMS, “recent research shows that submergence of rural land … is widespread, ecologically and economically important, and globally relevant to the survival of coastal wetlands.”

In the Chesapeake Bay region alone, the study notes, more than 150 square miles of forest have converted to marshland since the mid-1800s. Mid-Atlantic forests are reportedly retreating inland more than twice as fast as they were 150 years ago.

As previously noted in a February report by the Natural Resources Defense Council, the loss of private land to rising water level can pose an economic issue, as the loss of viable private shoreline can negatively affect property values, which in turn could negatively affecting property tax yields. This is potentially problematic in rural localities like Mathews where so much of the tax base is derived from property taxes. Between 2005 and 2017, the NRDC reports, $15.8 billion in property value was lost on the east and Gulf coasts from rising sea levels.

Kirwan and co-author Keryn Gedan of George Washington University note that the scientific community’s emerging recognition of this issue has “generated widespread interest in better understanding the many factors that influence the extent and pace of upland-to-wetland conversion.” These factors include rate of sea-level rise, slope of the upland, tidal range, amount of sediment available for vertical marsh growth, salt tolerance of different tree and grass species, and the presence of levees and other human barriers,” the press release stated.

“When uplands convert to wetlands there’s a loss in value for private landowners, but a gain in ecosystem services for the general public,” Kirwan said. “Future research should help identify the management decisions that could best offset economic losses while improving the function of new wetlands.”