News of interest to residents of Gloucester, Mathews and thousands of other communities on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts: “Above-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this year.”

Sigh. We have heard this before. There is some usefulness in knowing that the tropics may be more, or less, active than usual. But a busy season, or slow season, makes no difference until the hurricane’s eye is pointed at your front door.

Enough scares pop up from year to year that the initiated (hurricane veterans) know how to get ready. Here is a truth that people who never lived through a hurricane need to know: being prepared does not keep the trees from falling, the tide from rising, the rains from flooding, the winds from shrieking, and the power from going out for days on end. Preparation helps mostly with the long, weary aftermath.

All the same, it is a good thing to have everything ready for a hurricane, and if the forecast of a busy season makes more people get their acts together, the recovery will be less painful.

The forecast for active tropics was issued last week by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It bases the outlook on “a weak or non-existent El Nino, near- or above-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and average or weaker-than-average vertical wind shear in that same reason,” according to the forecast.

Gerry Bell, lead hurricane forecaster, said strong El Ninos and wind shear “typically depress development of Atlantic hurricanes.”

NOAA forecasts 11 to 17 named storms. These include tropical storms, with winds of 39 mph or higher, and hurricanes, winds of 74 mph or higher. Two to four of the hurricanes could be major, that is, with winds of 111 mph or higher, NOAA said.

In fact, the season started early with Tropical Storm Arlene, which swirled briefly in the eastern Atlantic in April.

Other hurricane names for 2017 are Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irma, Jose, Katia, Lee, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy, Vince and Whitney.

Are you ready?